Breaking Down George Church

We at JoJo Brand 3 start thinking after reading,
George Church's Interview with the Harvard Gazette

Being a convert to the Science Belief System, we tried to breakdown the association/relationship between Failure Rate, Effort, Risk, Success and Happiness.

Much like Thermodynamics, by breaking down these abstract measures into equations, we can start to see interesting relationships.

Failure rate (FR) is a good metric for amount of Risk (R) a person holds.

FR = R (it's probably more the marginal risk)

The amount of Risk a person holds is the total of systemic risk (SR) and voluntarily taken risk (VR).

R = SR + VR

At steady state, the amount of Effort (E) must meet the amount of Risk being held, or we fail.

E = R

It follows that increasing VR will require more E, (given that SR remains constant) or else we'll fail.

E= SR + VR

Assumption: more Effort over time will result in Success (S).

As we take on more Risk, this will require for Effort over time. Some of that Effort will result in Failure, but most will result in small quantals of success, and summed over a lifetime will equal Success with a capital S!

Summation of Effort over time = Success

If we rearrange the equation, Success equals the summation of both systemic and voluntary risk taken over our lifetime!

S= sum.over.time(SR + VR)

Assumption: more Success over time will result in Happiness (H)

H = sum.over.time(SR + VR)


We tend to equate Happiness with those Success that result from Efforts in overcoming only Voluntary Risk!

(We should equate Happiness with Total Risk, but we don't)

Therefore, it makes more sense to say that only increasing VR over time will result in increase Happiness.

H = sum.over.time(VR)

and since

FR = R

R = SR + VR

FR = SR + VR

VR = FR - SR


H = sum.over.time(FR - SR).

From this last equation, we can clearly see that if we take on more Voluntary Risk (VR), which will require more Effort and result in increased Fail Rate (FR) our Happiness may not necessarily increase because systemic risk is also increasing at the same time and sucks up all the marginal Effort that is usually represented by the increase in FR that George likes some much.

Therefore, to increase our Happiness, we have to follow George's advice and take on more personal risk, but we also must make sure we are creating new communities with better safety nets to maintain or actucally decrease the systemic risk that each individual must take on when participate in that community.


(It probably makes more sense to look at the marginal Effort and Risk now that I finished writing this!)